Happy Friday, NBA bettors!
Tonight’s action features a massive 10-game slate with some marquee matchup for us to wager on:
Boston Celtics vs. Miami HeatCleveland Cavaliers vs. Memphis GrizzliesLos Angeles Lakers vs. Denver NuggetsSacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns
Cleveland is looking to set a franchise record for consecutive wins (16), but it won’t have Donovan Mitchell (groin) in this matchup. Meanwhile, Sacramento and Phoenix are battling for play-in tournament position in the Western Conference while the Lakers and Nuggets each are aiming to make their case for the No. 2 seed.
I’m eyeing three player props and one side for tonight’s action, including a play for All-Star big man Bam Adebayo.
Here’s a full breakdown of tonight’s NBA Best Bets!
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 182-173-4 (+1.2 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1192-1118-26 (+39.21 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Bam Adebayo OVER 18.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unitJabari Smith Jr. OVER 12.5 Points (-130) – 0.5 unitMark Williams OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unitMinnesota Timberwolves -10 (-112) vs. Orlando Magic – 0.5 unitBam Adebayo OVER 18.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
Heat big man Bam Adebayo has thrived against the Celtics in recent games, scoring 19 or more points in eight of his last nine matchups dating back to Oct. 22.
This season, Adebayo got off to a slow start scoring the ball, but he’s averaging 22.0 points per game since Feb. 1 (an 18-game stretch). During those 18 games, Bam has 19 or more points 13 times.
Back on Feb. 10, Adebayo had 22 points and 12 rebounds against Boston, and he’s seen his shots per game and field goal percentage skyrocket since earlier in the season. I’m buying him to bounce-back from a six-point game in his last matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Jabari Smith Jr. OVER 12.5 Points (-130) – 0.5 unit
With Amen Thompson out with an ankle injury, Jabari Smith Jr. has seen a bigger role in recent games (playing over 30 minutes in back-to-back games) for the Houston Rockets.
Smith has scored 13 or more points in three of his last four matchups, and he’s taken 11 or more shots in five of his last six games. That usage should be enough to get Smith over this number against a Dallas defense that ranks 26th in the league in defensive rating over its last 10 games.
Mark Williams OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unit
I love this matchup for Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams, as he’s taking on a San Antonio Spurs team that has not been able to rebound the ball since Victor Wembanyama was ruled out for the season.
The Spurs are 27th in the NBA in rebounding percentage over their last 10 games, and Williams has been a beast on the glass this month.
Over his last seven games, he’s averaging 12.1 rebounds per game, and he’s picked up 12, 13, eight, 10 and 14 rebounds in his five games this month. I expect Williams to have a huge game on the boards, especially if the Hornets let him push the 30-minute mark again tonight.
Minnesota Timberwolves -10 (-112) vs. Orlando Magic – 0.5 unit
The Minnesota Timberwolves are rolling right now, winning their last six games with Julius Randle in the lineup, and I think they may be undervalued on Friday.
The Orlando Magic have struggled mightily as road underdogs this season (6-12 against the spread), and they’re playing the second night of a back-to-back after beating the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday.
Minnesota has not been great from a betting perspective at home (9-18 against the spread as a home favorite), but it ranks fourth in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games. Over that same stretch, the Magic are 19th in net rating.
The key to this game is going to come on the offensive end. Both of these teams are top 10 defenses, but the Magic have one of the five worst offensive ratings in the 2024-25 season. Minnesota, on the other hand, is fourth in the league in offensive rating over its last 10 games.
If the Wolves keep scoring at a high rate – and Randle and Donte DiVincenzo returning to the lineup has helped them do that – I don’t think Orlando will keep up on the road.